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It simply cannot go on. It makes no sense for it to persist. And yet, it does.

A Historic Victory Defying Expectations

Aston Villa entered Saturday's Premier League encounter at Chelsea aiming for a historic record of 11 consecutive wins, a feat last achieved in the distant past. For much of the match, achieving it seemed improbable, as the hosts controlled proceedings, secured the lead, and could have added several more. However, Chelsea have shown vulnerability when ahead, especially at home, while Villa now possess a remarkable knack of securing away victories after falling behind.

First, Ollie Watkins equalised, the ball cannoning in off his leg and the post following his initial shot was blocked by Robert Sánchez. Later on, he nodded in the decisive goal with a deft header. These were just his fourth and fifth league goals of the campaign. Watkins might feel some fortune was due, and it's undeniable the first goal involved a significant element of good fortune. At the moment, however, fortune is smiling on Villa.

The Numbers Behind an Unlikely Run

The last nine of these eleven straight wins have been by a single goal. They have managed a clean sheet in just one of those games. Their expected goals (xG) have been superior in only six of those encounters, and in a couple of those, the margin was minimal. Their last five road Premier League victories have all come after conceding first. This formula seems unsustainable, yet observers have been saying that for some time, and Villa continue winning. The central question is whether their outcomes will eventually align with their performances or if their performances can rise to justify the results.

This should not be sustainable, but everyone has been saying that for a while and Villa continue winning.

A Core Characteristic: Belief

Fighting back is not merely a trait of the current campaign. Over the past 3 seasons, no side has won more points from losing positions than Villa's 54; 18 of those were secured this season, fifty percent more than the next best team, Sunderland. This season, Villa substitutes have scored 9 goals. Two important points can be made about Villa under Unai Emery.

• Firstly, they possess a profound self-belief that means no deficit ever feels beyond them. This is, in part, self-perpetuating: the more they come from behind, the more they are convinced they can do it once more.
• Secondly, Emery has proven very adept at changing games with his use of the bench.

The Emery Effect

While Chelsea won the expected goals 2.1-1.4, Villa were the dominant force from the moment, around the hour mark, when Emery made a triple substitution. Watkins came on for Donyell Malen, who had found it difficult with limited service. Immediately, the ball began to stick, and Watkins's runs in behind created issues. Amadou Onana and Jadon Sancho also entered, strengthening the midfield and providing the flank presence they had lacked earlier.

Chelsea had 10 shots to Villa's none before the changes; afterwards, Villa had 11 chances to Chelsea's four. By the final whistle, Villa were commanding and could have won more comfortably. Not for the first time, opposing manager Enzo Maresca struggled to respond as the game turned against him; the impression remains that he is better at implementing a tactical plan with preparation time than making adjustments in the moment.

Moment of Magic

Villa have cultivated a happy habit of players producing pieces of sensational quality to alter games. Rogers has been decisive at Leeds, West Ham, and against Manchester United. The sight of him working the ball onto his favored foot and curling a finish into the top corner has become a recurring theme. It was Malen who transformed the game after coming on at Leeds. The striker swung the game at Stamford Bridge. The performances of defenders like Konsa and Lindelof on Saturday were key. At present, it's seldom the entire team playing flawlessly, but enough players within it delivering to earn the victories.

What Comes Next?

Will they be able to keep going? They now sit three points behind Arsenal, and as the season approaches its halfway stage, they have to be viewed as in the championship conversation, arguably more so than club world champions Chelsea or reigning title holders Liverpool. The upcoming away fixture at Arsenal will be a major examination of that status. Villa defeated Arsenal earlier this month, a match in which they not only had better the xG but registered an xG 40% higher than any other side has managed against Arsenal in the league this term.

Arsenal have assembled their own run of single-goal victories, winning 3 in a row without ever being entirely convincing. The upcoming clash will be a test for both sides – and if Villa win a 12th game in a row, it would become almost impossible to deny their championship pedigree.