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Well. On one hand, the nation's long-running campaign to host the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the privilege to host the largest global environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have brought many thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next November.

This won't occur. Rather, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had hoped organizing the environmental gathering could help accelerate Australia's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other senior figures truly desired the bid to be approved. His statements were ambiguous at best. It translated to stories in the Australian and international media saying the government was withdrawing.

This differed from the communication being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. Although the minister supported it, other senior members of the government have only occasionally appeared to care.

DFAT, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and sometimes completely against.

There is little sign the prime minister has viewed international climate meetings a priority. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to look at it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on this week may, ironically, have been the best result available.

Bowen set out on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, host and primary coordinator, and Australia – the climate minister – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the countries actually attend for – the discussions on how to collectively address the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. The details of the agreement had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could collapse before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on climate change.

Turkey is widely seen in the international community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the UN climate process. This framework is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is privately arranged to persuade them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid clearly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's venue had backed the southern pitch.

However, uniquely, Turkey refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not only by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no major power with the influence to stare down the oil producers that offered the Turks with certain protection.

The Turkish president is seen as close to the Russian leader. Some countries feared a summit obstructed from the top if his administration managed the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to host an underprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was necessary. International frameworks is flawed and often disconcerting to watch, but multilateral action has empirically had an impact in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for increasing carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who attend UN conferences see Bowen as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been requested to lead negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This is significant. Although certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "president of negotiations", specialists from research centers and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations assert it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a leader holding the pen who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an significant result. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the Cop other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unanswered questions. For example, civil society is essential at environmental summits. How, if anything, can the federal administration do to stop a restriction on civil society by the host government?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this deal appearing as the most promising opportunity possible to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.