Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
